Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

Abstract Flood-related risks to people and property are expected increase in the future due environmental demographic changes. It is important quantify effectively communicate flood hazards exposure inform design implementation of risk management strategies. Here we develop an integrated modeling framework assess projected changes regional riverine inundation risks. The samples climate model outputs force a hydrologic generate streamflow projections. Together with statistical hydraulic model, use map uncertainty projections for extreme events. We implement rivers across state Pennsylvania, United States. Our suggest that Pennsylvania overall increasing change. Specific regions, including main stem Susquehanna River, lower portion Allegheny basin central Delaware River basin, demonstrate higher In our analysis, dominates surrounding projection chain. combined uncertainties can account as much 37% total uncertainty. discuss how this provide dynamic flood-risk assessments help risk-management